Stupak coalition and several other fence-sitting Dems key to health reform's demise

Let me begin this article by making something clear: Despite the currently pervasive optimism among Democrats about the prospects of their party’s health care reform package, the deal is not yet sealed.  It is still much more than just theoretically feasible for the package to be defeated.

Halting the passage of the bill, however, will require some key individuals to step forward and vote according to their principles rather than the principles of President Obama and the Democratic House leadership.

Although I had not hoped it would be the case when I started pulling together the information for my last article, what I wrote ended up making it clear that reform’s prospects rest in the hands of two critical groups of Democrats.

First, defeating the reform package will require the members of Rep. Bart Stupak’s group to quickly decide that they simply cannot get from the broader House the abortion-related language that the group wants. 

I realize that Rep. Stupak and his colleagues are holding out hope that some sort of Presidential executive order will satisfy their concerns, thus allowing them to vote for the health care bill in good conscience.

Unfortunately, this just isn’t possible.  There is no way the language of the proposed executive order can be sufficiently close to the language the Stupak coalition has been demanding without the language simultaneously sending a large number of pro-choice House Democratics into a tizzy that President Obama and House Speaker Pelosi simply will not allow..

Moreover, the Stupak coalition cannot be fully certain the President will follow through and sign the proposed executive order in the form they desire.

So, in the end, the decision by members of the Stupak coalition about how they vote will reflect exactly how sincere they have been in their opposition to the abortion language in the reform bill.  If they vote “yes” claiming that a promised executive order addresses their concerns, we (and their constituents) will know they were never sincere in their opposition to the bill’s language.

If the Stupak coalition sees the light and comes out soon in opposition to the reform package’s passage, it still will be necessary for a number of key Democrats to vote “no” as well.

Who are those key Democrats?

One of them, Rep. Zack Space (OH), apparently has just announced his intention to vote “no” on the bill.  That’s a very positive development – at least on the surface – since Space voted “yes” last year on the original House version of the reform package.

Another “no” vote that also has just been announced – much to my surprise – is Rep. Jim Matheson (UT).  Matheson was a “no” when the House voted last year on health reform, but most of my sources were telling me he would vote “yes.”

Other key Democrats who might still vote no include Reps. Lincoln Davis (TN) and Earl Pomeroy (ND), who will face reelection challenges in November if they end up being the key “yes” votes on the reform package.

Opponents of the package also should continue working hard to bring Rep. Paul Jankorski (PA) into the fold.  Although Kanjorski voted “yes” on the original House reform bill last year, he, too, is facing a tough reelection battle.  He is said to be leaning “no,” in part because the education bill the Democrats have attached to the health care reform package could negative impact his district.

Finally, those working to defeat the health care package need to make certain Glenn Nye (VA) comes out sooner rather than later against the Democratic legislation,  There also may still be a genuine opportunity to have retiring Rep. John Tanner (TN) announce a “no” vote.

Looking at these scenarios and opportunities, it should be clear that defeating the Democratic health care package is still more than just a minor possibility.  But, as I also concluded at the end of my last article, the key votes will be the ones announced and cast by the Stupak coalition.

The fog of war and the health care reform battle

In the midst of a battle as all-consuming as the one being waged over health care reform, it is easy to forget why the phrase “fog of war” merits an entry of its own in Wikipedia.

The phrase, of course, is shorthand for “the uncertainty regarding own capability, adversary capability, and adversary intent during an engagement …”  The concept is such a fundamental part of actual conflict that it is purposely simulated in popular computer war games.

We are seeing a vivid example of misperception and uncertainty as we enter the end game of the health care reform battle.

We hear numerous explosions as House member after House member holds a press conference and announces they will vote for reform.

We catch scattered radio reports that the Democrats are building almost insurmountable momentum.

We even get casualty reports – in this case, prediction market results – that suggest that the battle is almost lost.

Nevertheless, as we receive and process all of this seemingly useful information, we have to step back.  We need to ask ourselves: What does the information that is particularly relevant and meaningful tell us about our situation?  What does it tell us about our opponent's position and expected course of action?  And what should we do given our opponent’s likely plans.

When it comes to the health reform battle, the data that are most relevant – reliable whip counts of who intends to vote for and against the Democratic reform package – clearly indicate that the Democrats do not have the votes they need.

Indeed, when you strip away the fog of war and focus on the most important events and outcomes of the past day or so, here is what emerges.

The Democrats have reached the point where, to get the votes they need, they must negotiate with Rep. Stupak and other House members who oppose the abortion-related provisions in the Senate version of the reform package.

These negotiations, in turn, have made it necessary for the President and the Democratic House leaders to seek ways of meeting the needs of the Stupak group without losing the support of the pro-choice Democrats.

We do not yet know the details of the strategy the Democrats will pursue.  (We should learn more at 11:00 a.m. this morning when Rep. Stupak holds a press conference.)  It appears, however, that the Democrats will pursue a strategy that allows for separate votes on, on the one hand, the broad Senate reform package, and, on the other hand, the abortion-related provisions in the Senate language.

Now, it is not clear that House or Senate procedures will even allow separate votes of the kind being planned, or that there will be enough votes to pass the changes in the abortion-related language desired by the Stupak group.  In addition, even if procedure and voting in the House plays out as the Stupak group would like, it will be almost impossible for the Stupak language to pass the Senate.  There are simply too many Democratic Senators opposed to the Stupak abortion language.

All of this may not matter to the Stupak group.  They may be so worn down by negotiations and pressure from the President that, at this point, all they want to do is vote publicly against the Senate’s abortion language without actually ensuring the language makes it into a bill signed by the President.

Alternatively, the Stupak group may want an arrangement that truly ensures that the bill reaching the President’s desk has the language they desire.  If this is the case, the President and the Speaker of the House have a truly daunting task on their hands, given the resistance they will face from pro-choice House members.

There is a real possibility that this second scenario is playing out.  Members of the pro-choice House caucus already have expressed anger at the deal being negotiated with the Stupak group.  In addition, the fact that President Obama is meeting today with the entire Democratic House membership suggests that there is a need for his persuasive powers to iron out important rifts in the group.

How should those opposed to the Democratic plan to react to the current state of battle?

First, if it becomes clear that the Stupak group is only interested in publicly voting against the reform package without actually ensuring their abortion language becomes law, opponents need to quickly and vocally make it clear that doing this will be far from enough.  This “just let me have my vote” strategy has to be depicted clearly and unequivocally as an abandonment of pro-life principles and a capitulation to President Obama and House Speaker Pelosi.

Only by swiftly and loudly reacting to this strategy can there be any hope that some in the Stupak group will change their minds by the time the vote takes place.

Second, if the Stupak group is, instead, truly interested in requiring their abortion language to be in the final reform bill, pro-choice groups will have to swing into high gear and pressure numerous like-minded House Democrats to vote “no” on the package that includes the Stupak language.

While all of this is going on, every effort – and I mean every effort – has to be made by Republican leaders across the country to quickly and visibly gain additional “no” votes from undecided Democrats.

Republican leaders have to start thinking about what is best for the country in the long term, rather than what is best for the party in the next election.  They need to reach out to House members such as Reps. Nye (VA), Matheson (UT), Dahlkemper (PA), and Bishop (GA), who are still undecided and in the more conservative wing of their (current) party.  Reps. Kanjorski and Carney (both PA), and perhaps Davis (TN) and Kind (WI), also still may be amenable to creative overtures.

The health care reform battle is far from lost.  The situation is much better than most observers recognize.  It is time to sweep away the fog of war and put in place a strategy that ensures final victory.

Update (3/20/2010 9:30 a.m.) - This report at The National Review suggests that the Democratic deal with the Stupak group may be collapsing.  If so, it could mean that the Democrats have enough other votes to pass the reform package.  It's hard to see how that would be possible, however, without many of the Stupak group voting yes despite the lack of a deal (which seems improbable).  Thus, a likely alternative conclusion is that the reform package is in trouble.  We'll get a better insight into things at Stupak's 11:00 a.m. news conference this morning.

Update (3/20/2010 10:15 a.m.) - Multiple reports are coming in that the Democrats will not be making a deal with the Stupak group.  There are also a small number of reports that Stupak has cancelled his press conference scheduled for 11:00 a.m.

Update (3/20/2010 10:50 a.m.) - Rep. Stupak has apparently cancelled the press conference he was going to hold this morning at 11:00 a.m.

Update (3/20/2010 02:30 p.m.) - There are conflicting reports on what's going on in regard to Rep. Stupak and his group's discussions with the House Democratic leadership.  My sources indicate, however, that it is increasingly likely that the Stupak group will hold the key to whether or not the reform package passes.  I'll discuss this further in my next posting.