What will the President say to health care reform fence sitters?

President Obama will soon start meeting one-on-one with members of the select group of House of Representatives who will determine the fate of the President's health care reform package.

The conventional wisdom is that these conversations will be relatively simple.  Almost all of the House members with whom the President will meet are Democrats, so most people expect the President's discussions to focus on the long-held Democratic desire to have all Americans covered by some kind of health insurance.  President Obama will "tug on the Democratic heartstrings," the storyline goes, and appeal to each member's sense of duty to bring the long-desired ideal of universal health care to fruition.

The President will do this, it is assumed, to outweigh the concerns many members have about the impact a vote in favor of health care reform may have on their  reelection prospects this November.

Also to address those concerns, the President is expected to promise substantial White House and Democratic Party help to House members concerned about their reelection prospects.

But I think these expectations substantially underestimate not only the sales skills of the President, but also the ability of the President and his advisers to think strategically.

Instead of being defensive, I expect the President to pursue a potentially powerful alternative approach that could be very effective with many wavering House members.

In particular, I think the President is going to tell each member that he has no intention of letting his health care reform package be a negative come the November elections.

He will explain, instead, that, once health care reform passes, he intends to counter the "just say no" Republican Congressional strategy by offering up a variety of centrist proposals that Republicans will not be able to reject without coming across as truly obstructionist.  To give a sample of things to come, he probably will point to his latest education reform proposal.  (Do you really think it's just a coincidence that the President's education reform plans were announced right now, at the key juncture in the health care reform battle?)

Finally, the President will claim that, far from being a liability in the fall, the Representative's vote for health care reform and the rest of President's proposals will be seen as part of an impressive series of actions likely to improve the American economic security and standards of living.

All of this will seem completely logical to many of the House members -- mainly because it actually makes a lot of sense.

If the President can resist his innate tendency to tack left on just about any issue, it will, indeed, serve him best to move to the center if he wins the health care reform battle.  This will allow him and the rest of the Democratic Party to regain the support of independents and diminish the likelihood of substantial electoral losses in November.  It also will present a sharp constrast to the Republicans if the GOP continues with a "just say no" strategy.

The approach to the upcoming one-on-one discussions that I've just outlined also has one final advantage: It gives each House member a rationale for "following their heart" and voting in favor of that long-held Democratic ideal of universal health care.

What does all this mean for Republicans?

First and foremost, it means they should not underestimate the impact the President's discussions are likely to have on the voting intentions of key House members.  After the party's recent successes in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, the GOP may think it has the President's number. Nothing could be further from the truth.  The President's upcoming discussions have a real potential to land a knockout punch to any chances the Republicans had of halting the Democratic health reform package..

Second, the GOP quickly has to develop and communicate a counter strategy that ensures key House members cannot rationally accept  the President's arguments.  Republicans have to put forward at least one believable alternative scenario that plays out better for most of the critical House members if they vote no on reform than if they go with the President.

I will not attempt in this posting to outline what such a strategy might be.  Frankly, I am not sure at this point what it would look like.  Perhaps some of you can put forward some helpful ideas.

But I do know this.  A GOP strategy of simply saying "Vote no, or we'll really go after you in the fall" isn't going to cut it with a lot of the House members.  As it stands, the GOP is going to go after these House members in the fall anyway.  And, as I described above, President Obama is likely to bring a much more compelling offer to the table.

Update: I discussed all of this a bit via Twitter with Karl from Hotair.com and Patterico.com .  He questioned whether the President really wants the GOP to stop being obstructionist, since he may feel it works in his favor.  A reasonable perspective, although I'm not sure I agree.  More importantly, he doubts that there is really any strategy the GOP can have with the Democrats who are on the fence, since Republicans "have no leverage" with those House members.  That may be the case, but I think it's worth our while to do some brainstorming to make really sure it's the case.  The stakes certainly warrant a stab at some out-of-the-box thinking.