Let me begin this article by making something clear: Despite the currently pervasive optimism among Democrats about the prospects of their party’s health care reform package, the deal is not yet sealed. It is still much more than just theoretically feasible for the package to be defeated.
Halting the passage of the bill, however, will require some key individuals to step forward and vote according to their principles rather than the principles of President Obama and the Democratic House leadership.
Although I had not hoped it would be the case when I started pulling together the information for my last article, what I wrote ended up making it clear that reform’s prospects rest in the hands of two critical groups of Democrats.
First, defeating the reform package will require the members of Rep. Bart Stupak’s group to quickly decide that they simply cannot get from the broader House the abortion-related language that the group wants.
I realize that Rep. Stupak and his colleagues are holding out hope that some sort of Presidential executive order will satisfy their concerns, thus allowing them to vote for the health care bill in good conscience.
Unfortunately, this just isn’t possible. There is no way the language of the proposed executive order can be sufficiently close to the language the Stupak coalition has been demanding without the language simultaneously sending a large number of pro-choice House Democratics into a tizzy that President Obama and House Speaker Pelosi simply will not allow..
Moreover, the Stupak coalition cannot be fully certain the President will follow through and sign the proposed executive order in the form they desire.
So, in the end, the decision by members of the Stupak coalition about how they vote will reflect exactly how sincere they have been in their opposition to the abortion language in the reform bill. If they vote “yes” claiming that a promised executive order addresses their concerns, we (and their constituents) will know they were never sincere in their opposition to the bill’s language.
If the Stupak coalition sees the light and comes out soon in opposition to the reform package’s passage, it still will be necessary for a number of key Democrats to vote “no” as well.
Who are those key Democrats?
One of them, Rep. Zack Space (OH), apparently has just announced his intention to vote “no” on the bill. That’s a very positive development – at least on the surface – since Space voted “yes” last year on the original House version of the reform package.
Another “no” vote that also has just been announced – much to my surprise – is Rep. Jim Matheson (UT). Matheson was a “no” when the House voted last year on health reform, but most of my sources were telling me he would vote “yes.”
Other key Democrats who might still vote no include Reps. Lincoln Davis (TN) and Earl Pomeroy (ND), who will face reelection challenges in November if they end up being the key “yes” votes on the reform package.
Opponents of the package also should continue working hard to bring Rep. Paul Jankorski (PA) into the fold. Although Kanjorski voted “yes” on the original House reform bill last year, he, too, is facing a tough reelection battle. He is said to be leaning “no,” in part because the education bill the Democrats have attached to the health care reform package could negative impact his district.
Finally, those working to defeat the health care package need to make certain Glenn Nye (VA) comes out sooner rather than later against the Democratic legislation, There also may still be a genuine opportunity to have retiring Rep. John Tanner (TN) announce a “no” vote.
Looking at these scenarios and opportunities, it should be clear that defeating the Democratic health care package is still more than just a minor possibility. But, as I also concluded at the end of my last article, the key votes will be the ones announced and cast by the Stupak coalition.
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