Sources: Matheson (UT) released by Pelosi to vote no

Everything I'm hearing and seeing suggests that Democratic Utah Rep. Jim Matheson's announcement that he will vote "no" on the health care reform package was done after Speaker of the House Pelosi released him to do so.

Matheson apparently was ready to vote "yes" on the legislation if his vote was necessary to put the Democrats over the top.  Because such a vote would hurt Matheson in the upcoming November elections, however, he and the House Democratic leadership agreed to delay finalizing his vote until it was clear whether or not they needed a "yes" from him.  Hence the late timing of his decision.  (This is exactly what I suggested might happen in this article earlier today.)

We'll get a sense if this scenario is true or not based on at least two things.

First, if the vote goes for the Democrats with more than just one or two votes in their favor, that will be a pretty strong tipoff that Matheson was released.

Second, it will be useful to keep an eye on what Matheson does over the course of the next 24 hours.  I doubt we'll see it, but if there's clear evidence that he's been out and about persuading other fence-sitting Dems to vote "no," we'll know that my sources were feeding me dogfood.

Stupak coalition and several other fence-sitting Dems key to health reform's demise

Let me begin this article by making something clear: Despite the currently pervasive optimism among Democrats about the prospects of their party’s health care reform package, the deal is not yet sealed.  It is still much more than just theoretically feasible for the package to be defeated.

Halting the passage of the bill, however, will require some key individuals to step forward and vote according to their principles rather than the principles of President Obama and the Democratic House leadership.

Although I had not hoped it would be the case when I started pulling together the information for my last article, what I wrote ended up making it clear that reform’s prospects rest in the hands of two critical groups of Democrats.

First, defeating the reform package will require the members of Rep. Bart Stupak’s group to quickly decide that they simply cannot get from the broader House the abortion-related language that the group wants. 

I realize that Rep. Stupak and his colleagues are holding out hope that some sort of Presidential executive order will satisfy their concerns, thus allowing them to vote for the health care bill in good conscience.

Unfortunately, this just isn’t possible.  There is no way the language of the proposed executive order can be sufficiently close to the language the Stupak coalition has been demanding without the language simultaneously sending a large number of pro-choice House Democratics into a tizzy that President Obama and House Speaker Pelosi simply will not allow..

Moreover, the Stupak coalition cannot be fully certain the President will follow through and sign the proposed executive order in the form they desire.

So, in the end, the decision by members of the Stupak coalition about how they vote will reflect exactly how sincere they have been in their opposition to the abortion language in the reform bill.  If they vote “yes” claiming that a promised executive order addresses their concerns, we (and their constituents) will know they were never sincere in their opposition to the bill’s language.

If the Stupak coalition sees the light and comes out soon in opposition to the reform package’s passage, it still will be necessary for a number of key Democrats to vote “no” as well.

Who are those key Democrats?

One of them, Rep. Zack Space (OH), apparently has just announced his intention to vote “no” on the bill.  That’s a very positive development – at least on the surface – since Space voted “yes” last year on the original House version of the reform package.

Another “no” vote that also has just been announced – much to my surprise – is Rep. Jim Matheson (UT).  Matheson was a “no” when the House voted last year on health reform, but most of my sources were telling me he would vote “yes.”

Other key Democrats who might still vote no include Reps. Lincoln Davis (TN) and Earl Pomeroy (ND), who will face reelection challenges in November if they end up being the key “yes” votes on the reform package.

Opponents of the package also should continue working hard to bring Rep. Paul Jankorski (PA) into the fold.  Although Kanjorski voted “yes” on the original House reform bill last year, he, too, is facing a tough reelection battle.  He is said to be leaning “no,” in part because the education bill the Democrats have attached to the health care reform package could negative impact his district.

Finally, those working to defeat the health care package need to make certain Glenn Nye (VA) comes out sooner rather than later against the Democratic legislation,  There also may still be a genuine opportunity to have retiring Rep. John Tanner (TN) announce a “no” vote.

Looking at these scenarios and opportunities, it should be clear that defeating the Democratic health care package is still more than just a minor possibility.  But, as I also concluded at the end of my last article, the key votes will be the ones announced and cast by the Stupak coalition.

Sources: Reps. Matheson and Kind likely to vote "yes" on Democratic health plan; Rep. Nye a likely "no"

We are getting a lot of information from a variety of sources – some very good, some so so – about how the voting for the Democratic health care reform package is likely to play out.  We’ll provide in this posting some of the most definitive information that we have, then lay out additional information in the next one or two postings.

Here’s what we know.  We’ll start with the likely “yes” votes.

First, even though it hasn’t been announced, it seems almost certain that Rep. Jim Matheson (UT) will vote for the Democratic plan.  His vote against the plan last year was intended to strengthen his position in the election he’s facing in November.  Likewise, he’s been given the option of delaying his announcement of how he’ll vote this time in case it becomes possible for him to vote “no” (because enough other Democrats have voted yes).

Thus, unless there’s something very soon from Rep. Matheson indicating that he’s actually going to vote “no,” it can be safely assumed that he’s either going to vote yes, or he’s going to wait until it’s fully clear that a “no” vote won’t affect the outcome.

We also have solid information from reliable sources that Ron Kind (WI) will vote “yes”.  We understand that he voted earlier this week against the reconciliation package in committee mainly to help his reelection chances in November, but he has basically been on board with the plan for some time.  (He voted yes on the House version of the plan last year.)

Rep. Kind has been delaying the announcement of his vote decision for at least two reasons.  First, the delay is meant to communicate to his constituents that his decision was not an easy one.  Second, the delay was planned to help the Democratic House leadership spread out the “yes” announcements, thus giving the appearance of continuous momentum in favor of the Democratic plan.

We also have more sketchy information suggesting that Rep. Brian Baird (WA) is likely to vote “yes,” and also some minor indications that Rep. John Tanner (TN) is also leaning in that direction.

On the “no” side, we unfortunately have less information at this time.  

We do have firm grounds, however, for believing that freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (VA) will be voting “nay” again on health care reform.  He has been delaying announcing his vote for as long as possible, however, in deference to the House leadership.  The leadership recognizes the tough reelection campaign Rep. Nye will face this fall, but it has not wanted his “no” announcement to come out too early for momentum reasons.

We’ll discuss more about these vote decisions and the decisions of other representatives in our next posting.

Our quick take at this point, however, is that what we know so far indicates that the Stupak group -- and a handful of other Democrats – is likely to be the key to whether or not the Democratic reform plan passes.

Update (3/20/2010 07:15 pm): Jim Matheson has announced that he will vote no on the health reform package.  This could be interpreted as a sign that the Democrats have the votes that they need to pass the health care package.  That would fit with what my sources were telling me.  We'll just have to see.

Update (3/20/2010 11:30 pm): As we expected, reports indicate Rep. Kind has announced he will be a "yes" on the Democratic health plan.