We are getting a lot of information from a variety of sources – some very good, some so so – about how the voting for the Democratic health care reform package is likely to play out. We’ll provide in this posting some of the most definitive information that we have, then lay out additional information in the next one or two postings.
Here’s what we know. We’ll start with the likely “yes” votes.
First, even though it hasn’t been announced, it seems almost certain that Rep. Jim Matheson (UT) will vote for the Democratic plan. His vote against the plan last year was intended to strengthen his position in the election he’s facing in November. Likewise, he’s been given the option of delaying his announcement of how he’ll vote this time in case it becomes possible for him to vote “no” (because enough other Democrats have voted yes).
Thus, unless there’s something very soon from Rep. Matheson indicating that he’s actually going to vote “no,” it can be safely assumed that he’s either going to vote yes, or he’s going to wait until it’s fully clear that a “no” vote won’t affect the outcome.
We also have solid information from reliable sources that Ron Kind (WI) will vote “yes”. We understand that he voted earlier this week against the reconciliation package in committee mainly to help his reelection chances in November, but he has basically been on board with the plan for some time. (He voted yes on the House version of the plan last year.)
Rep. Kind has been delaying the announcement of his vote decision for at least two reasons. First, the delay is meant to communicate to his constituents that his decision was not an easy one. Second, the delay was planned to help the Democratic House leadership spread out the “yes” announcements, thus giving the appearance of continuous momentum in favor of the Democratic plan.
We also have more sketchy information suggesting that Rep. Brian Baird (WA) is likely to vote “yes,” and also some minor indications that Rep. John Tanner (TN) is also leaning in that direction.
On the “no” side, we unfortunately have less information at this time.
We do have firm grounds, however, for believing that freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (VA) will be voting “nay” again on health care reform. He has been delaying announcing his vote for as long as possible, however, in deference to the House leadership. The leadership recognizes the tough reelection campaign Rep. Nye will face this fall, but it has not wanted his “no” announcement to come out too early for momentum reasons.
We’ll discuss more about these vote decisions and the decisions of other representatives in our next posting.
Our quick take at this point, however, is that what we know so far indicates that the Stupak group -- and a handful of other Democrats – is likely to be the key to whether or not the Democratic reform plan passes.
Update (3/20/2010 07:15 pm): Jim Matheson has announced that he will vote no on the health reform package. This could be interpreted as a sign that the Democrats have the votes that they need to pass the health care package. That would fit with what my sources were telling me. We'll just have to see.
Update (3/20/2010 11:30 pm): As we expected, reports indicate Rep. Kind has announced he will be a "yes" on the Democratic health plan.
Update (3/20/2010 07:15 pm): Jim Matheson has announced that he will vote no on the health reform package. This could be interpreted as a sign that the Democrats have the votes that they need to pass the health care package. That would fit with what my sources were telling me. We'll just have to see.
Update (3/20/2010 11:30 pm): As we expected, reports indicate Rep. Kind has announced he will be a "yes" on the Democratic health plan.
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